We have a new storm to watch closely this week. It’s the newly named Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located about 625 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, or about 1,700 miles southeast of us in Southwest Florida.
As of 5:00 p.m. Monday, maximum sustained winds are 35 mph.
This storm is tracking to the west-northwest at 15 mph. The current timing puts PTC6 close to Southwest Florida this weekend, likely Saturday morning.
Intensity forecast guidance suggests that this storm will be a healthy tropical storm, with winds 55-65 mph by the time it gets here. So, we would have tropical storm Fred close to us.
At this point, only one of over a dozen intensity models has the storm a low-end Category 1 hurricane with 77 mph wind, so we consider that an outlier. On the other end of the spectrum, one model has the storm with 23 mph wind when it gets close to us.
One should discount, but not completely disregard, those two extremes when looking at the guidance.
Same thing applies with the track forecasts. One model has the storm (labeled as Invest-AL-94) tracking over Lake Okeechobee, while another has it tracking south of Cuba.
When you discount those two models, the consensus track is through the Florida Straits with a turn into the eastern Gulf. Sound familiar? That was the route Elsa took passing by in early July.
A lot is very uncertain at this point, but that’s what everyone’s going to be talking about this week. So, get Your Most Accurate Forecast from ABC7!
"six" - Google News
August 10, 2021 at 04:12AM
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six aimed at the gulf - ABC7 News
"six" - Google News
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