ALBANY — In so many ways, this election is unlike any other.
No matter how voters feel about the candidates on their ballot, they're voting amid a global pandemic, with millions more casting ballots by mail this year than have done so in years past. The unique circumstances of this year's democratic exercise may also raise questions about how this election is going to unfold. A lot of questions.
Here are six key things to remember about what to expect on Election Night — and after.
#1 What’s the state of the presidential race going into election day, and what are the key states to watch?
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald J. Trump by between 7.5 and nine points nationally, according to two of the most popular polling averages.
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But — as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton discovered in 2000 and 2016, respectively — it’s not technically a national election. It’s really better to think of it as a series of state races happening at the same time.
The six main swing states to watch this year — and where Biden's polling numbers are tighter with Trump's — are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.
“You should know Florida by 1 a.m. unless it is very, very close, which it could be,” said Clifford Brown, a political science professor at Union College. “If Biden carries Florida by 1 a.m., it’s over. If Biden is narrowly ahead in Florida, it is probably going to go his way.”
The consensus among experts is that Trump is a substantial underdog, although he has a realistic chance of winning because he is more popular in the all-important swing states than he is nationally. In Florida, the candidates are separated by a percentage point in recent polling.
President Trump during a campaign rally in Goodyear, Ariz., on Oct. 28, 2020. Washington Post photo by Jabin Botsford.
Jabin Botsford/Washington Post News Service#2 So when will we know who won the White House?
Polls will begin closing for the first states at 6 p.m., east coast time. This year, experts say it is unlikely there will be a winner declared on Election Night. Because of the expansion of mail-in voting this year due to COVID-19, results may be delayed — particularly in states that going to be counting historic numbers of mailed ballots.
“It is unlikely that we will be confident about the winner until Friday, Nov. 6. And it is entirely possible that we will not be confident about projecting a winner until Friday the 13th — which feels appropriate for 2020,” Christopher Mann, a political science professor at Skidmore College, wrote in an email.
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Television network news organizations “call” races by looking at the official vote count as it comes in and through exit polls of voters to make inferences about how the final vote count will look.
"These projections make for exciting television, but they don't mean anything more than the pre-race betting odds on who is favored to win at the Saratoga Race Track," Mann said.
If Trump wins, it's more likely to occur at the end of a nail-biter. But if the polls hold and Biden runs out far ahead on election night, there may be a much earlier indication of the outcome — even if the race isn't officially over.
“I think if Biden is running a six-point margin nationally, the answer is you will (know the likely winner) that election night,” Brown said. He added that news networks may not officially call the race, but “we should know where it’s going.”
Albany Mayor Kathy Sheehan and her husband Robert Sheehan wait to enter the Albany County Board of Elections to cast their ballots in early voting on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020, in Albany, N.Y. (Paul Buckowski/Times Union)
Paul Buckowski/Albany Times Union#3 What happens if a candidate declares themselves a winner before the full results are in?
Picture this: It’s election night and tallies from the polls are looking good for Republicans. But there are still lots of mail-in ballots to be counted — and generally more Democrats than Republicans are voting by mail. It's possible there will be an early "red mirage,” Mann said, resulting from the in-person votes, followed by a “blue wave” as the mail-in ballots are counted.
If a candidate declares himself winner in the “mirage” phase, does that change anything?
“Candidate declarations of victory are meaningless,” Mann said. "If a candidate declares themselves the winner before results are in, and especially before any news organizations project them to be the winner, I expect this to be met with skepticism and perhaps scorn."
Brown warned that declarations of victory could be a candidate tactic used to sow doubt in the results and set the table for legal challenges. Brown speculated that Trump could make an early claim of victory to set up later claims that the election has been “stolen from him.” But if Biden's path to victory is clear, the Democrat may try to block that tactic by declaring victory.
Over the course of the ensuing weeks, all election results will be tallied, certified and audited by election officials across the country.
Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, during a get out and vote event at The Queen theater in Wilmington, Del., on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020. (Erin Schaff/The New York Times)
ERIN SCHAFF/New York Times#4 What’s the worst-case scenario for post-election chaos?
First, it is nearly certain that in many places there will be legal challenges to election procedures – including how ballots are counted – and the results themselves. Some challenges have already started.
For example, the U.S. Supreme Court recently issued split decisions that will keep intact lower-court rulings allowing election officials to count absentee ballots received after Nov. 3 in Pennsylvania (through Nov. 9) and North Carolina (through Nov. 12), as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.
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In a similar case, but with a markedly different outcome, the Supreme Court voted 5-3 Monday to overturn a lower court ruling that would have allowed absentee ballots received in Wisconsin by Nov. 9 to be counted if they were postmarked on or before Election Day. As a result, no absentee ballots received after Election Day in Wisconsin will be counted.
“From president down to dog-catcher, many contests will be 'within the margin of litigation,’ where a successful legal challenge changes the winner,” Mann said.
Second, there could be disruptive protests around the country in response to the results, delays in counting, court battles or other unforeseen developments.
Finally, the least likely scenario: If neither presidential candidate wins 270 electoral college votes, or if the results of the popular vote are still unclear on Dec. 14 when state electors are slated to meet and cast their ballots, one or more state legislatures could theoretically decide how their state’s electoral college votes should be cast.
The newly elected Congress, Brown noted, would be in charge of accepting those results in January, with the House taking jurisdiction over the presidential result and the Senate overseeing the vice presidency.
#5 Will in-person voting cause COVID-19 outbreaks?
The short answer is maybe in some places, but precautions are being taken. The New York State Board of Elections issued detailed guidance to county boards about requiring masks at the polls, ensuring social distancing and increasing cleaning.
Like other “mass gatherings” that bring people together, voting could cause some spread of the virus, particularly if there are significant crowds, long lines and people not wearing masks, said Sally Friedman, associate professor of political science at the State University of New York at Albany.
Wisconsin’s April 7 primary saw long lines in many places, and 71 out of 400,000 people who voted in-person contracted COVID-19. But it was not clear whether those cases were caused by voting or other exposures, the Wisconsin State Journal reported.
“The biggest impact on Election Day is likely to be fear of outbreaks in places where COVID-19 is out of control, deterring people from going to the polls,” Mann said.
#6 What’s going to happen with the House and Senate?
Democrats are very likely to keep their House majority and might expand their conference; the Senate, presently controlled by Republicans, could go either way.
In the Senate, there are 23 Republicans up for reelection and 12 Democrats. Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to take control — or flip three seats and win the White House, since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate.
There are close races in Alabama, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Colorado and two in Georgia (one is a special election).
Ultimately, it comes down to a handful of close elections, any one of which could stretch on for days or weeks as recounts take place and mailed ballots are tallied.
Here's one final worst-case scenario to send you on you way: Even if the presidential race ends Tuesday night, the Senate outcome could stretch on for two more months if it comes down to one or both of the Georgia races. The Peach State has a rule that if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held Jan. 5 between the top two finishers.
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