Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.
West Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell bearish news for current prices, said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston.
“I think if you have 23 oil-producing countries that are party to an agreement, and that agreement isn’t extended, and the price of crude is in the mid-70s, that’s an engraved invitation to overproduce,” said Finlon.
Oil prices have rallied this year, as vaccination rates and economic reopening around the world have spurred fuel consumption. The extent to which the rally continues depends largely on OPEC+ ability to reach an agreement to limit output.
Tuesday’s decline cames as most commodity and stock markets fell and the dollar edged higher.
Discussions among the alliance dissolved acrimoniously as the United Arab Emirates blocked a proposal led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the situation is fluid and negotiations could be reactivated, the breakdown has damaged the group’s image as a responsible steward of the market.
WTI earlier hit the highest since November 2014, as the breakdown in talks left the market without the extra supplies for next month it had been counting on. Analysts from Citigroup Inc. to UBS Group AG warned that withholding extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic will push prices higher.
A repeat of last year’s destructive price war, which sent oil crashing, is also no longer a “negligible” prospect, Goldman warned.
“If there’s any indication that the UAE folks are adding barrels, there’s a chance, probably a good chance that others within the producer group will try and beat them to the punch,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.
Oil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+
Oil’s rally has been accompanied by sharp moves in price spreads between monthly contracts, an indication that traders see supply conditions growing tighter. The premium of Brent’s November contract over December jumped to 81 cents a barrel from 73 cents on Friday.
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The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition had been on the brink of an agreement to restore production halted during the pandemic, in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day. That plan could still be ratified, or members may choose to informally leak barrels to eager consumers.
“A compromise will be reached which should allow additional barrels into the market from August,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S. “The political pressure from large consumers such as India and China will grow, with Washington probably also adding some pressure.”
Traders will also look to crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week for signals about demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, in the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute report released later Tuesday.
— With assistance by James Herron, and Grant Smith
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